Analysis of the Contribution of ASEAN Countries in Supporting Sustainable Tourism in Indonesia

: This research aims to find out the contribution of ASEAN countries in supporting sustainable tourism in Indonesia as seen from the number of tourist visits from 2014-2021. Using the VECM method, the results showed that: (1) ASEAN countries with dominating tourist visits to Indonesia are: Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand; (2) there are long and short-term effects on tourist arrivals of the four ASEAN countries to Indonesia; (3) if there is a shock to the number of tourist arrivals from one of the ASEAN countries to Indonesia, it will resonate the number of tourist arrivals from the other three ASEAN countries; (4) if one of the ASEAN countries experiences a shock to the number of their tourist arrivals to Indonesia, it will first have an impact on the next period in that country, after which it will shake the other three ASEAN countries in the adjacent period. It is recommended that government and private organizations engaged in tourism, as well as the public, support the tourism liberalization program while still paying attention to local wisdom and various forms of assistance so that the number of tourist visits to Indonesia, especially in four ASEAN countries, remains stable, to enable the tourism sector to provide maximum tourism foreign exchange earnings.

Abstract: This research aims to find out the contribution of ASEAN countries in supporting sustainable tourism in Indonesia as seen from the number of tourist visits from 2014-2021.Using the VECM method, the results showed that: (1) ASEAN countries with dominating tourist visits to Indonesia are: Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand; (2) there are long and short-term effects on tourist arrivals of the four ASEAN countries to Indonesia; (3) if there is a shock to the number of tourist arrivals from one of the ASEAN countries to Indonesia, it will resonate the number of tourist arrivals from the other three ASEAN countries; (4) if one of the ASEAN countries experiences a shock to the number of their tourist arrivals to Indonesia, it will first have an impact on the next period in that country, after which it will shake the other three ASEAN countries in the adjacent period.It is recommended that government and private organizations engaged in tourism, as well as the public, support the tourism liberalization program while still paying attention to local wisdom and various forms of assistance so that the number of tourist visits to Indonesia, especially in four ASEAN countries, remains stable, to enable the tourism sector to provide maximum tourism foreign exchange earnings.

Introduction
Indonesia has a vast and beautiful landscape; this has great potential for Indonesia to increase its foreign exchange through the development of the tourism sector.According to Iza (2017), in 2017 the tourism sector in Indonesia contributed the second largest foreign exchange after taxes, so in 2019, the DPR plans to boost as many foreign tourists (Wisman) as possible to come to Indonesia because they add more to the country's income than domestic tourists (Indonesian House of Representatives, 2019).
Before the House of Representatives made this statement, the Indonesian government also actively cooperated with ASEAN countries to increase revenue through the tourism sector by agreeing to the proposed liberalization of tourism in the ASEAN region.Furthermore, the Indonesian government formed a tourism policy combined with Tourism Law No. 10 of 2009 with the operationalization regulated in Government Regulation No. 50 of 2011 concerning the National Tourism Development Master Plan (RIPPARNAS), this regulation was initiated as Indonesia's reaction in response to the decision to liberalize tourism in the ASEAN region (Ministry of Tourism, 2011).
Indonesian tourism has a place to continue to grow with the role of the government and the law, despite experiencing a decline due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic which began to be felt in early 2020 until mid-2021, after which it slowly began to recover.With the completion of the pandemic period, the government is again boosting state revenue through the tourism sector by targeting revenue of USD 1.7 billion by 2023 (Ministry of Administrative Reform and Bureaucratic Reform, 2021).
Compared to other countries, ASEAN countries have a central role in adding foreign exchange besides taxes.According to the Secretary of the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy, Ni Wayan Giri Adnyani, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia are the biggest contributors to foreign tourist arrivals.In January 2015, several countries in the world with the ten most visitors were: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China, India, Philippines, Hong Kong, and Thailand (Ministry of Tourism, 2015).From these data, it can be seen that the ASEAN countries with the largest visits in 2015 were Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand.In 2020, there was a decrease in foreign tourist visits to Indonesia, but ASEAN countries remained a milestone in Indonesia's foreign exchange from the tourism sector (Kemenparekraf / Baparekraf, 2021).
Based on the data explained above, it would be very interesting if the tourism sector in the ASEAN scope be studied further, especially from the influence of the number of tourist visits to Indonesia among ASEAN member countries.Several researchers have studied the tourism sector in Indonesia with various research methods and supporting variables, some of which are Budisusila et al.'s research (2019) found that main factors such as tourism relative cost efficiency, infrastructure access, tourism liberalization, and tourism services affect the level of visits by ASEAN countries to Indonesia.
Another study conducted by Mariyono (2017), states that larger and richer countries visiting Indonesia in addition to being able to increase foreign exchange are also able to influence the number of visits of other foreign countries including ASEAN countries.In https://equatorscience.com/index.php/jabteraddition, the distance factor also determines the level of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia.Other research relevant to this study has been conducted by Iskatrinah & Awaludin (2019), which states that government policies regarding visa exemptions for ASEAN countries have increased the number of tourist visits from ASEAN countries.
More in-depth research on tourism in Indonesia, conducted by Fadilah & Riyanto (2021), states that the shock of foreign tourist arrivals can resonate with the shock of Tourism FDI for up to 5 periods ahead, Tourism GDP will also experience a shock for up to 2 periods and at the latest 16 periods.Chinprateep's research (2020), also focuses on tourism in ASEAN countries, resulting in the opinion that currency exchange rates, tourist spending, transportation investment, and the number of hotel accommodations also affect the number of tourist visits in Indonesia.
From relevant previous research, no research has been found that discusses in detail the influence of which ASEAN countries can influence and have an impact on the Indonesian tourism sector.As in Mariyono's research (2017), it has not reviewed in detail which countries have the strongest influence in influencing the number of visits between the countries studied.The results of research by Budisusila et al. (2019) have not discussed in detail the answer to which country is the most dominant in their visit to Indonesia.Iskatrinah & Awaludin's research (2019) has not described the right form of policy to be implemented when there are short-term and long-term shocks to the number of tourism visits from dominant ASEAN countries.Meanwhile, Fadilah & Riyanto's research (2021) has not focused the discussion on the regional area which has the potential for tourist visits under study.Chinprateep's research (2020), has not discussed in more detail in answering which countries in the ASEAN region contribute to the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia, the impact, and reciprocity.
To support and complement the results of previous studies, this research is more focused on the contribution of ASEAN countries to the Indonesian tourism sector within the scope of the influence of the number of ASEAN countries' tourist visits to Indonesia.This research is expected to complement information from previous studies as a discourse for relevant parties in making policies to obtain the right policies to build sustainable tourism.Thus, this research is given the title, "Analysis of the Contribution of ASEAN Countries in Supporting Sustainable Tourism in Indonesia".

Research Method
This research belongs to the category of quantitative descriptive research.According to Gay et al. (2012), descriptive research can also be stated as survey research.In this study, no direct survey was conducted, because the data taken by researchers had been collected by a third party, namely the Central Statistics Agency through the online portal www.bps.go.id, even so to explain and answer questions on the formulation of the problem, this research falls into the category of descriptive research.
This research took place during the Even Semester period of 2022/2023 with a research site that cannot be specifically mentioned because it is secondary data.The information https://equatorscience.com/index.php/jabtercollected is the number of foreign tourist arrivals recorded by the National Statistics Agency from all international airport exits in Indonesia (Statistics Agency, 2022).The data is taken from the portal www.bps.go.id by taking the period between January 2014 and December 2021.The data range is monthly (monthly) so that when viewed from the time series data, 96 data are obtained, and the total data when viewed from all variables is 384 with details of the number of tourist visits to Indonesia from Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Quantitative

Result and Discussion
The research results are described as follows: A. Descriptive Data Exposure

C. Optimum Lag Test
The Lag Optimum test produces the following results: Following the above results, it is known that the LR, FPE, and AIC values meet the criteria at the third lag, so the optimum lag that becomes the next test benchmark is Lag 3.

D. Stability Test
From the results of the stability test using the modulus value through Eviews 10, the results were obtained: From the figure above the points spread inside the circle, so the data is declared stable and passes the stability test on the VAR model, so it can be continued at the next stage.

E. Cointegration Test
From the results of the cointegration test through Eviews 10, the results are obtained: From the second difference stationary data with an optimum lag of 3, it is known that there are four cointegration equations at a significance of 0.05.Because the data has cointegration, the test can proceed to the Granger Causality Test stage to obtain more detailed results.

F. Granger Causality Test
In determining whether a relationship is long or short-term, the Granger Causality Test is conducted, with the following results: From the results of the Causality Test, the Prob.The number shows the probability value with a significance of 5%, It will be stated that Ha is accepted and Ho is rejected if Prob <0.05, namely the relationship between the number of Malaysian tourists and Singapore with a Prob.value of 0.0398; Thailand with Singapore with a Prob.value of 0.0006; Singapore with the Philippines with a Prob.value of 0.0003; Thailand with the Philippines with a Prob.value of 0.0283.With these results, the research can be continued at the VECM test stage.

G. VECM Test
The VECM test is used to see the long and short-term relationships, as well as the direction of the relationship between variables in more detail.The long-term relationship of the effect of tourist arrivals in ASEAN countries visiting Indonesia on other ASEAN countries is described in the following results: The short-term test results produce the following information: Source: Data processed by researchers 2023 It can be seen from the R Square that the ASEAN country that is most bound by the number of their tourist arrivals to Indonesia is Singapore with the largest R Square of 86.7%.

H. Impulse Response Test
The Impulse Response Test is used to forecast the impact of shocks on tourist arrivals of the four ASEAN countries to Indonesia if one of the four ASEAN countries experiences a shock.Based on the short-term relationship, the following information is generated:

Discussion
This discussion will answer based on the interpretation of the research results, with the following explanation.

A. Connectedness of the Number of Tourists from Four ASEAN Countries Visiting Indonesia
When viewed from a long-term relationship, the number of tourists from the four ASEAN countries visiting Indonesia all affect each other, so the increase and decrease in the number of tourists from an ASEAN country to Indonesia will be able to affect the number of tourist visits from other ASEAN countries.This is not without reason, because ASEAN countries are connected in close regional communication.Information on problems and tourism development in Indonesia can be heard and discussed in a short time, both at the formal level in government and the informal level at the level of ASEAN citizens.Moreover, global communication is netted in social media, causing information to spread quickly.For example, the Klithih problem in the city of Yogyakarta has become a major concern of ASEAN citizens both in street food conversations and formal government meetings when discussing tourism in Yogyakarta.https://equatorscience.com/index.php/jabterB. The Impact of Shocks on the Number of Tourist Visits from Four ASEAN Countries to Indonesia If there is a shock in the number of tourist visits from one of the ASEAN countries to Indonesia, then the number of tourist visits from other ASEAN countries is also shaken, this shows the rapid rate of spread of information from one ASEAN country to another ASEAN country.Government policy, in responding to tourism liberalization, must certainly be right on target, because the policy has an impact not only on Indonesian citizens and their natural environment but also on foreign tourists, especially from the four ASEAN countries.Liberalization must also be supported by non-government tourism associations and the community, to create a harmonious relationship to support tourist facilities, local wisdom, and the growth of MSMEs.If this is not considered and becomes a regional problem, it will inevitably cause a shock to the number of tourism visits of an ASEAN country to Indonesia which will resonate with the number of tourism visits of other ASEAN countries.
C. The Impact of Shocks on the Number of Tourist Visits from Four ASEAN Countries to Indonesia From the results of the VD Test, it can be explained that if there is a problem with tourists from four ASEAN countries either due to inadequate facilities, uncomfortable accommodation, the community and MSMEs that are less friendly in serving tourists, it will have a dominant impact on the country the next time.Likewise, if there is positive news that will have an impact on the increase in the number of visits in the following period.After the dominance of the increase or decrease in the number of tourist visits of one of the four ASEAN countries to Indonesia, the dominance will spread due to resonance shocks.Interestingly, the spread of dominance due to resonance is not as stated in Mariyono's (2017) research which states that one of the main factors affecting the rise and fall of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia is distance, the longer the distance, the less the number of tourists visiting, this statement is refuted from the VD pattern and also the resonance of shocks.The results show that the dominant influencing factor is the number of tourist arrivals in the previous year and the impact spreads quickly affecting countries in the ASEAN region randomly and not rigidly pegged to distance.It can be a new conjecture for future research, that the communication factor is the dominant one in influencing the number of foreign tourist arrivals in the ASEAN region, not distance as Mariyono (2017) has stated.

D. Comparison to Previous Research
The findings of this study differ from previous research in several ways, including (1) Differences with Mariyono's research (2017): This study states that distance is not the only benchmark that can affect the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia, especially in the 4 ASEAN countries studied; (2) differences with the research of Budisusila et al. (2019); Iskatrinah & Awaludin (2019); Chinprateep (2020);and Fadilah & Riyanto (2021): This study supports and strengthens the research results of the researchers mentioned, the difference https://equatorscience.com/index.php/jabter is only in terms of the object and also the variables studied.This study supports the statement that tourism liberalization affects the number of tourist visits among ASEAN member countries which will automatically increase the Indonesian economy, especially in terms of Indonesia's Tourism GDP.With the results and discussion, the hypothesis can be proven that there is indeed a shortterm and long-term influence on the number of visits of one ASEAN country on the number of visits to other ASEAN countries.

Conclusion
The following conclusions were reached based on the research findings: (1) From 2014 to 2021, the four ASEAN countries that dominate the number of ASEAN tourist visitors to Indonesia are: Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, and Thailand; (2) From the data of the number of tourist visits of four ASEAN countries visiting Indonesia, the stationarity of the data is obtained at the second difference (D2); (3) The optimum lag obtained is at the third lag; (4) There are short and long terms that dominate the number of tourist visits among the four ASEAN countries visiting Indonesia; (5) In short, the number of tourist visits from Malaysia to Indonesia is said to affect the number of tourist visits from Singapore to Indonesia, but not vice versa as well as Thailand to Singapore, Singapore to the Philippines and Thailand to the Philippines; (6) The influence of the longest and largest shocks and can cause the strongest effect is the number of tourist arrivals from the Philippines to Indonesia in response to Singapore; (7) When viewed in the long term for one year, each of the number of tourists from the four ASEAN countries who came to Indonesia in the previous time is dominant in influencing the number of their tourists to come to Indonesia in the future before the dominance spreads to the number of tourist arrivals to Indonesia from other ASEAN countries.
Based on the findings of this study, it can be suggested to several parties how to advance the Indonesian economy through the sustainable tourism sector, these parties are: (1) Coordinating Minister for Parekraf: to make the right policy in leading to tourism liberalization so that the policy creates a symbiotic mutualism between tourism actors and tourists; (2) Tourism and Creative Economy Office: to continue to increase attention to tourism facilities and also in an effort to increase local wisdom; (3) Tourism actors: always pay attention to the variables that can increase the number of tourism visits, especially to tourists from the ASEAN countries studied, by paying attention to these variables, tactical movements will be obtained that can increase the comfort and safety of tourists from the four ASEAN countries on an ongoing basis; (4) For the Community: continue to pay attention to hospitality and uphold good manners in the form of local wisdom that can attract a sense of comfort and security and interest in foreign tourists, especially in ASEAN countries.

Figure 2 .
Figure 2. Impulse Response Test Results

Table 1 .
Descriptive Data of the Number of Tourists of Four ASEAN Countries 2016-2021The highest visit of foreign tourists from ASEAN from January 2014 to December 2021 was from Malaysia in June 2019, while the lowest was from Thailand in July 2021.B.Exposure of Stationary Test DataBased on the stationary test results, all data are declared stationary at the second different level:All data are stationary, so the data test can proceed to the next stage. https://equatorscience.com/index.php/jabter