Shares Price Forecasting Using Simple Moving Average Method and Web Scrapping

Abstract

The fluctuation of share prices in a secondary market allows investors/traders to gain profits through the difference in share prices (capital gain). In order to obtain these benefits, it is necessary to analyze before buying shares through fundamental and technical analysis. One of several methods in Technical Analysis is Simple Moving Average Method. This method can predict (forecast) share prices by calculating the moving average of the share price history. Historical share prices can be obtained in real-time using the Web Scrapper technique, so the results are more quickly and accurate. Using the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) method, the level of accuracy of forecasting can be calculated. As a result, the program could run successfully and display the value of forecasting and the level of accuracy for the entire data tested in LQ45. Besides, forecasting with a value of N = 5 has the highest level of accuracy, reaching 97,6 %, while the lowest one uses the value of N = 30, which is 95,0 %.