Macroeconomic Analysis on Corporate Performance Through Dividend Payout Ratio Among LQ45 Index Issuers
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Abstract
This study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic variables — Exchange Rate (X1), Inflation (X2), and BI Rate (X3) — on Dividend Payout Ratio (Y) and Return On Asset (Z) as an intervening variable among LQ45 Index issuers listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2016–2025. A quantitative approach was applied using balanced panel data from 9 energy and mining sector companies (90 observations), analyzed with EViews 12. The Random Effect Model (REM) was selected as the best-fit estimation model through the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. Results from Model 1 indicate that the Exchange Rate has a positive and significant effect on DPR (β = 1.134, p = 0.0038), while Inflation (p = 0.3254) and BI Rate (p = 0.8393) show no significant effect on DPR. In Model 2, Exchange Rate (β = 0.539, p = 0.000) and Inflation (β = 2.585, p = 0.000) positively and significantly affect ROA, while BI Rate has a significant negative effect (β = −1.996, p = 0.003), and DPR positively and significantly affects ROA (β = 0.142, p = 0.000). These findings imply that macroeconomic policies — particularly exchange rate and interest rate stability — should be carefully considered by corporate management when formulating dividend policies and strategies for improving corporate financial performance among export-oriented commodity issuers.
Keywords:
Macroeconomics Exchange Rate Inflation BI Rate Dividend Payout Ratio Return On Asset LQ45References
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