Analysis of Price Fluctuation Factors and Production Costs on The Farmers’ Terms of Trade in South Sumatra Province, 2010–2024

Moh. Saiful Anam; Joko Hadi Susilo; Hartiningsih Astuti; Endang Endang; Putri Autika  Arifin

doi:10.54408/jabter.v5i4.607

Authors

Moh. Saiful Anam Development Economics Study Program, Economics, Bojonegoro University
Joko Hadi Susilo Development Economics Study Program, Economics, Bojonegoro University
Hartiningsih Astuti Development Economics Study Program, Economics, Bojonegoro University
Endang Development Economics Study Program, Economics, Bojonegoro University
Putri Autika Arifin Development Economics Study Program, Economics, Bojonegoro University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54408/jabter.v5i4.607

Keywords:

Farmer Exchange Rates, Price Fluctuations, Production Costs, Farmer Welfare, South Sumatra

Abstract

This research aims to analyze the influence of price fluctuations and production costs on Farmer Exchange Rates (NTP) in South Sumatra Province during the 2010–2024 period. NTP is used as an indicator of farmer welfare which reflects the comparison between the price index received by farmers and the price index paid by farmers. This research uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression methods and utilizes secondary time series data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency. The price fluctuation variable is proxied through the Price Index Received by Farmers, while production costs are proxied through the Price Index Paid by Farmers. The research results show that price fluctuations have a positive and significant effect on NTP, while production costs have a negative but not significant effect. Simultaneously, both variables have a significant effect on NTP. These findings indicate that agricultural commodity price stability has an important role in improving farmer welfare. Therefore, price stabilization policies and controlling production costs need to be strengthened in order to maintain the sustainability of farmer welfare in South Sumatra Province.

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